The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, paints a very concerning picture for Sunday from Texas to Ohio. The map below needs to be taken seriously.
The red-shaded, hatched area represents a region that will be at the greatest risk on Sunday for ‘significant severe weather’.
What is Significant Severe Weather?
The Storm Prediction Center defines this as a storm that produces one or more of the following:
- A tornado that produces EF2 or greater damage. That’s usually associated with a tornado with at least 111 mph winds.
- A storm producing damaging winds of 75+ mph.
- A storm producing hail that is 2 inches or larger in diameter (about the size of a golf ball)
Any of these are possible from East Texas to the Great Lakes, but a sliver of the Texas ArkLaTex up to the southern Michigan border is at the highest risk of these significant severe storms. Forecasters are also warning that some of the strong tornadoes could be long-track.
Timing of the Storms in East Texas
Let’s first point out that the storms are expected to be scattered in East Texas. The chance of storms on Sunday in Lufkin/Nacogdoches is 34%, and 45% in Tyler/Longview.
However, these hit-and-miss thunderstorms are predicted to move through our area during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Some computer models show the storms continuing until midnight.
Springtime in East Texas Means Be Prepared
March through May is the height of the severe weather season in East Texas. This Sunday’s outbreak is expected to be widespread across the South and Midwest, but it won’t be our last bout with severe storms this spring…