Flood risk returns to Houston Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front. Here’s a timeline

A sluggish late August cold front is expected to slip into Southeast Texas through the end of the week and will spark daily storms that could create a flood risk.

Heavy rainfall and storms could slow down evening commuters through the end of the week, especially with the prospect of mainly minor street flooding. Here’s what you need to know about when heavy rainfall will most likely occur and what it could do for Houston’s steamy summertime air.

Flood risk arrives Wednesday

The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center, which specializes in flood forecasts, expects mainly localized flooding to occur beginning Wednesday. But on the WPC’s scale of 1 to 4, the Houston metro area would be under a level 1 risk, the lowest potential for flooding.

Wednesday’s heaviest rainfall will likely be north of Houston, according to high-resolution forecast model guidance that outperforms long-range models for this type of weather pattern. This tracks well, given the flood risk currently forecast for Wednesday near and mainly north of Interstate 10.

Most of Southeast Texas will be rain-free Wednesday morning. In the afternoon and evening, the region has the best chance at getting downpours. Rainfall totals Wednesday may not be overly impressive, with most of us staying below a half-inch of rain. Fast rainfall rates, on the other hand, are going to be the main driver for this week’s flood potential…

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