We are tracking severe weather this afternoon and evening followed by critical fire danger. Strap in and read on!
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Storms this morning coming out of Oklahoma ARE NOT the main wave we are expecting this afternoon. This line of thunderstorms is non-severe but will pose a lightning risk which could ignite a fire in Western Missouri midday today.
Here’s the afternoon setup. A dryline will pass through the Ozarks this afternoon through this evening from west to east. Severe thunderstorms will be to the east of the dryline while critical fire danger will be found west of the dryline.
Let’s talk about thunderstorms first. Thunderstorms will initially develop near Highway 65 between 3pm – 5pm . The amount of moisture (AKA the fuel) is marginally supportive of severe weather around Highway 65, but a stronger storm may perk up in this environment. The risk early on would be for damaging winds of 60 mph and quarter-sized hail. The tornado risk is low in this initial time period.
Storms will begin to tap into better moisture amounts east of Highway 65. This will allow storms to grow stronger east of Springfield between 5pm and 7pm . These storms will be pushed by the dryline at 60-75 mph. In other words, these storms will be booking it to the east! Hazards within this second time period will be for 60-70 mph winds, golf ball-sized hail, and a couple tornadoes.
The final push of thunderstorms will be from 7pm to 9pm near and east of Highway 63. Scattered storms previously will become more widespread and develop into a broken line of individual storms all competing for the same energy. This means some storms will be stronger than others. The strongest of the storms here could produce 70+ MPH winds, golf ball-sized hail, and a couple tornadoes.
This is not a late-night event. Storms are exiting the Ozarks by 9PM and the risk for storms is over. The risk of wildfire, however, will linger past midnight…