November mild mode continued across the area today. A thin veil of high clouds wasn’t enough to keep many areas from hitting 70°. Mild November weather will persist through the rest of the week, but not the dry pattern.
A few spots saw thunderstorm activity earlier this week, but for many areas, the dry streak continues. Springfield hasn’t had any significant rainfall since the last week of October, but that’s about to change.
Heading into the evening, we’ll have cloudy skies and steady temperatures. The rain will hold off until after midnight, when pockets of rain and thunder will develop across the Ozarks. A few of the thunderstorms may be strong enough to produce some small hail, and a severe storm or two with hail up to quarter-size can’t be ruled out.
Much of the rain tonight will tend to focus north of the state line before expanding south of the state line Thursday morning. Areas of rain and embedded thunder will persist throughout the day and night.
Rainfall will be locally heavy, but the flooding risk looks limited and mainly of the street flooding variety when downpours are moving through. The rain will add up, though, with many spots picking up between 1 and 2″, and locally 3″.
By Friday morning, much of the steadier rain will be moving out. Clouds will break up over Southwest Missouri and Northern Arkansas by afternoon with temperatures climbing to warm levels. Further north, closer to Central Missouri, clouds and showers will persist, along with cooler temperatures.
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Most areas will remain dry during the afternoon to the south, but a stray shower or thunderstorm may try to develop in the warmth.
A front sagging south Saturday night will bring clouds back to the south. There may also be some dense fog to start the day on Saturday. Cloud cover on Saturday may be tough to get rid of. This will tend to keep daytime temperatures in the 50s. Cool and damp conditions may foster more fog on Sunday morning. This should thin quickly with mostly sunny and milder conditions expected.
Another storm will follow the weekend with rain and some thunder spreading in Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain and embedded thunder will persist into Monday night before clearing out early Tuesday.
A pattern shift will follow with a cold front ushering in colder weather by Wednesday. This will set the stage for a cold Thanksgiving holiday. Weather conditions look quiet from Wednesday to Thursday with freezing temperatures possible on Turkey Day morning, and afternoon highs only in the upper 30s and 40s.
Some ingredients are showing up for a little snow after Thanksgiving, centered around Black Friday. Just something to watch for as we move deeper into the cold season…