Today will feel like spring following a warm front that passed through the area this morning. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s with a breezy south wind and a hint of mugginess. We may find pockets of sunshine, too, in Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas today, with more clouds in Central Missouri and a low chance for rain and storms.
There is a very low risk that a storm in West Central Missouri today/tonight produces some small hail. Otherwise, most of Central Missouri will see nothing more than stray rain showers.
A storm passing to our northwest will shove the warm front back into Southern Missouri and will aid in generating a round of rain and thunderstorms from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.
There is a low-end risk for a few storms to reach severe levels on Wednesday through the day. The primary risk is some hail and gusty winds, with a low tornado risk in portions of Northern Arkansas.
Rain and storms will drift south of I-44 on Wednesday night and wrap up on Thursday morning. Thursday will be warm and we may find moments of sunshine, especially in the afternoon, with cloudier skies to the southeast of Springfield.
The springlike feel returns on Friday, and we’re watching a risk for thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening.
The storms could be severe to the west late Friday night, spreading into the Ozarks late Friday night into Saturday morning. Severe weather will be possible as the storms move through, with storms expected to exit Saturday afternoon.
The waves of heavy rain will add up in area rain gauges with a general 2 to 5″ expected over the next 5 days…