The election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted two key House races to toss-ups, moving Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola’s (D) seat in Alaska away from Democrats and Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R) seat in California away from Republicans.
Forecasters were “impressed” that Peltola won more than 50 percent of the vote in Alaska’s all-party, top-four primary last month. But after a Trump-backed GOP candidate dropped out of the race, Peltola is headed into the ranked-choice general election against Republican Nick Begich and two smaller-profile candidates for the Last Frontier State’s sole House seat.
What’s more, Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system was first used just two years ago, when Peltola won the seat, and some in the state are already trying to repeal it — adding to the shift toward toss-up status in the red state.
In California, Steel represents the Orange County 45th Congressional District, which President Biden won in 2020. Some recent internal polls from Democrats have shown a tight race, contributing to the shift. The forecasters also note that Steel faces Democrat Derek Tran, a Vietnamese American, in a district with a significant Vietnamese population.