The Arizona Weatherman is still expecting an overall decrease in thunderstorm activity and area coverage for the state in the next few days. However, isolated areas of more intense thunderstorms will occur in certain locations, such as Southern Arizona, this afternoon, Friday, June 28, 2024.
The high-resolution convective models indicate that there is an increased chance of stronger thunderstorms over Santa Cruz and Southern Cochise Counties, as depicted in the above image. The Arizona Weatherman is expecting between 1 pm and 7 pm thunderstorms with the potential of >60 mph winds, up to 1 inch of hail, and possible localized flooding. The models are indicating CAPEs in the 2,000+ range, LI -6 to -7 range, and DCAPE values over 1,400. Therefore, expect the possibility of severe parameters that may impact Sierra Vista, Bisbee, Nogales, and Patagonia to fall into this area coverage for this afternoon.
Please be aware of your local radar data and NWS warnings. If the roadways are flooded, please go around and be safe.