According to the Arizona Weatherman, the next few days will have some good monsoon thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather due to winds, hail, and flooding. However, going into the 4th of July weekend, expect a diminishing amount of convective activity.
Today, Monday, 1 Jul 2024, expect a continuation of thunderstorm activity in the state, especially in the southern, eastern, and Mogollon Rim sections. This convective activity may have areas of isolated severe parameters such as winds >60 mph, hail up to one inch, and localized flooding, primarily for Pima, Santa Cruz, Cochise, Pinal, and Graham Counties. The author also expects more isolated thunderstorms up on the Mogollon Rim, particularly for Gila, Navajo, and Apache counties. This activity will be most prevalent between 1 pm and 8 pm today.
Expect this monsoon thunderstorm activity to continue into the 2nd and 3rd of July. Going into Tuesday, remnants of Tropical Storm Chris is looking to add some moisture for Eastern Arizona, but this thunderstorm activity will begin to taper off on the 3rd of July. On the 4th of July in Arizona, it looks like the spigot of monsoon moisture has been cut off, with the exception of the very southern areas of the state. An upper-level ridge moves in from the west and provides a northwesterly flow.