According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Thursday, 25 July 2024, there will be a similar pattern to yesterday’s monsoon thunderstorm track. Storms will initially develop on the Mogollon Rim after 12 p.m. and move southward over the afternoon and evening hours. There is a high likelihood of severe thunderstorms today in some of this convective activity.
The upper-level difluence and unstable atmosphere in Arizona will lead to significant thunderstorms impacting Southern Arizona today. The stability indices are on the higher side, with CAPE values 2,200 to 3,000, LIs around -7 to -8, no capping, DCAPE values over 1200, and hail indicators. Due to this, expect storms to potentially have winds >60 mph, potential blowing dust, hail less than one inch, and localized flooding. The hardest hit areas will be Gila, Graham, Pinal, Pima, Western Cochise, and Santa Cruz. The storms will move off the rim around 3 pm, impacting the lower valley areas between 4-10 pm today. Pima County, including Tucson, is generally looking for the most severe activity. In the evening hours, the western Phoenix metro is also looking to be impacted by storms coming off the Rim.