According to the Arizona Weatherman, between Saturday, 14 September 2024, and Tuesday, 17 September 2024, expect Tropical Storm Ileana moisture to move into Arizona from the south and cause heavy rain with localized flooding and thunderstorms.
My previous forecast, “Arizona’s monsoon isn’t over yet: More tropical moisture on the way by this weekend,” that I put out last Monday, was spot on about the development of Tropical Storm Ileana in the Eastern Pacific. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Ileana is forecast to move into the Gulf of California, then become a depression by Sunday, and then move into Mexico. However, this tropical moisture associated with it will move into Arizona between Saturday and Tuesday, bringing in rain and potential flooding, especially in the state’s mountains.
The graphic above depicts where the models forecast the heaviest rain amounts for the state. Inside the highlighted area, expect the potential for 1-2 inches, and in the higher terrain, even up to 3 inches over the Saturday to Tuesday time frame. Specifically, Sierra Vista expects between .10” to .50”, Benson .10” to .50”, Tucson .30” to 1”, Phoenix .20” to 1”, Payson .40” to 1.50”, Flagstaff .10” to .50”, Prescott .10” to .50”, Kingman .01” to .20”, and Safford .10” to .40”. These estimates are rainfall totals between Saturday and Tuesday morning. Localized flooding and embedded thunderstorms may also impact certain areas of the state with the heaviest rain potential on Sunday and Monday.