According to the Arizona Weatherman, this Friday into Saturday, expect an upper-level low to eject over northern Arizona, bringing gusty winds, rain showers, and isolated thunderstorms. This system is not a monsoon-induced system but a mid-latitude intrusion into the state. The transition to fall is on the way.
The model data does not indicate a strong severe weather event but a general push of showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds on the Mogollon Rim and northern Arizona. The low will impact the state from Friday afternoon to Saturday evening. The better chances for thunderstorms are looking for Mohave, Yavapai, Coconino, and northern Apache and Navajo Counties. Much of the activity is looking like light rain showers. The wind gusts on the Mogollon Rim are expected to be between 20 and 35 mph.
Most of the rain chances are for unpopulated regions of the state, but Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon may get some intermittent showers on Friday through Saturday. Typically, most rainfall totals will be less than a half inch, and I am not expecting a high potential of localized flooding.