According to the Arizona Weatherman, the models are now converging on the solution for the likely upper-level low to develop over Arizona next weekend, Friday, October 18, 2024, through Sunday, October 20, 2024. As this pending pattern develops, it will be a stark break from the pervasive high pressure and record-breaking temperatures the state has experienced over the past several weeks. This upper-level low will bring relief from the heat and drop the temperatures significantly. Secondly, rainshower and thunderstorms will accompany this system with potential severe weather as well. Lastly, snow is on the table with this system in the higher elevations in the mountains of northern Arizona.
The models are still in slight disagreement about how far south this low will push over Arizona, but in any case, the majority of the precipitation will be over Northern Arizona. In particular, Flagstaff is looking like ground zero, as is the Mogollon Rim triangle of Flagstaff, Payson, and Prescott. Also, northeast Arizona has a higher possibility of precipitation. The most likely precipitation for the state will be rain showers and thunderstorms, but higher elevations above 7,000 feet could get snow in the San Francisco range and northern Grand Canyon.