According to the Arizona Weatherman, we just had our last cold front move through, bringing a little bit of rain shower activity, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures to Arizona. Now, it is time for the second punch of cold weather to push through the state Saturday evening, 2 Nov 2024, through Monday evening, 4 Nov 2024. This next cold front and associated low pressure will bring in more rain, thunderstorms, a little snow in the higher elevations, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures for southern Arizona.
This upper-level pattern at 300mb troughing will be deeper than the previous system. In addition, an occluded low will accompany this cold front and provide more boundary layer convergence to produce thunderstorm activity and staying power for the length of this system. This setup is expected to bring more coverage of rain showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds than the last cold front.
Model data precipitation on 3 Nov 2024.Photo byWindy.com
The initial cold frontal weather will enter the northwestern section of Arizona on Saturday evening and push into the western part of the state by Sunday morning. Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the state Sunday afternoon into Monday evening. The bulk of the thunderstorm activity will be on Sunday afternoon into the evening. This system has the potential for severe weather, with larger hail, convective winds >60 mph, and isolated flooding. However, the model data indicates that most areas will get less than a half-inch of water-equivalent precipitation. There is a chance of 1-2 inches of snow for Flagstaff and elevations above 7,000 feet on the Mogollon Rim Sunday night into Monday morning.