According to the Arizona Weatherman, the longwave pattern is changing with a deepening trough moving over Arizona, including a developing cut-off low by Tuesday and Wednesday, 7-8 Jan 2025. This low development has had more model consistency over the last few days. The snow forecast for northern Arizona in my previous article, Winter Weather Returns: Arizona to see snow and strong winds this upcoming week, is still valid, but the low may also impact southern Arizona as well.
The winds will have some high gusty impacts with this system, too. On Tuesday, expect more of the northwestern part of Arizona with gusts up to 35 mph. Then, going into Tuesday evening and Wednesday, expect 30-45 mph max gusts from Flagstaff to southern Arizona as that cut-off low sets up. As the low ejects out on Thursday, expect northern Arizona to get 30-45 mph.
Model estimate of snowfall for Tuesday evening into Wednesday 7-8 Jan 2025.Photo byWindy.com
For northern Arizona on the Mogollon Rim, still looking for 1-2 inches at most locations, such as Flagstaff, Show Low, and possibly Sedona. The North Rim of the Grand Canyon and San Fransico Peaks will get more accumulation. I am still not looking for a heavy snow load with this system going into Tuesday and Wednesday. The update to this forecast would be a little more moisture is now indicated on the models for southern Arizona on Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Again, not a lot, but some. A trace to 1.5 inches of snow in Cochise and Graham Counties at elevations above 4,000 feet by Wednesday may be possible. A few isolated rain showers are also possible in Pima County and southern Arizona, which will get less than a quarter inch of rain. Higher elevations like the Catalina’s and Rincon’s ranges could also get snow.