The National Weather Service is closely monitoring ensemble guidance and cluster analysis, indicating an increasing confidence in a wetter and more unsettled weather pattern expected by late this week.
According to the National Blend of Models (NBM), residents can anticipate some showery activity Wednesday night into Thursday, with a stronger system set to move in from Friday through President’s Day Weekend.
While the first wave of precipitation on Wednesday night through Thursday is characterized by uncertainty, the NBM suggests a 20 to 40 percent probability of receiving a tenth of an inch of rain or greater during this period. In the mountains above 6000 feet, there is a 30 to 45 percent probability for an inch of snow or greater, potentially leading to minor travel impacts.
The second system, expected late in the week, poses higher potential impacts. For Friday through Saturday, the NBM predicts a 50 to 70 percent probability of receiving half an inch of rain or greater. In the mountains, there is a 40 to 70 percent probability of 6 inches of snow or more. Periods of gusty winds are also likely, with southerly winds forecasted for Saturday and a 35 to 65 percent probability of wind gusts exceeding 25 mph.