Tis the time of year when pumpkins have magically appeared in bins outside supermarkets and on porches. Which state grows the most? It’s hard to beat Illinois with its 18,000 acres of pumpkins. 2,100 miles away, in California (with roughly 900,000 acres of grapes), what happens when a family with a vineyard tries to do a tiny bit to help the housing/shelter market? In California, it isn’t pretty: Decent people, not criminals… They should have painted it camouflage. In addition to the terrible personal toll, wide swaths of housing are wiped out by fire (Maui) and now Helene, impacting supply and demand. Whether it is trends in residences, income, or credit analysis, things change. Do the Agency guidelines fit the current trends in income? Arguably not. (Capital markets staffs certainly can’t hedge GSE changes to gfees.) What about non-owner DSCR loans, are you concerned about that credit risk? You can’t hedge that either. Time will tell. For supply, new listings came in recently 8% ahead of a year ago, sending total active inventory 33% higher versus last year, while the median listing price was 1% lower, all encouraging signs for buyers. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s authentic Expert System AI has powered more than 2 million flawless, hands off underwrites. Every credit risk decision Candor makes is backed by a Warranty, eliminating repurchase worries. Hear an interview with Nectar’s Derrick Barker on the long-term implications of builders not meeting market demand for homes.)