With the first day of autumn on Sept. 22, it’s time to look at winter weather predictions from Farmers’ Almanac, The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the National Weather Service.
The trio use very different models and formulas to forecast weather months out, which can result in very different forecasts.
One element often used in forecasting weather patterns is La Niña or El Niño. There is around a 70% chance of a La Niña emerging in September through November and lasting into March, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center . If a La Niña emerges, it is likely to be weak.
Here’s a look at the accuracy of those long-range forecasts and what’s in store for Colorado and the U.S. this winter, at least according to the almanacs and National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center:
Accuracy of almanacs and Climate Prediction Center in forecasting winter weather
The two almanacs claim an 80% accuracy rate for their winter weather forecasts, which they publish in August.