Tropical Storm Sara continues to produce catastrophic flooding across portions of Central America; while Sara is forecast to continue to saturate the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, eyes are on what will happen with Sara and its remnant moisture next week.
Right now, the center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 hours ago, the storm has become less organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The National Hurricane Center says there shouldn’t be much change in strength before Sara makes landfall in Belize; however, some slight strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours while Sara remains over open water. Once Sara moves inland, it should significantly weaken; dynamical forecast models are in good agreement that it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico.
Officially, the National Hurricane Center says they expect the system to dissipate in about 60 hours as the storm makes its way across the Yucatan Peninsula. However, the global computer forecast models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. Global models suggest this potent system with soaking rains could move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing heavy rains to areas hit earlier this hurricane season by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.