BALTIMORE — The forecast for Friday, November 13, is starting to look more realistic. The European model now shows a weaker storm that swings farther east out to sea. That would limit the pull of cold air during the storm to the mountains. A few inches of snow on the ground is likely in western Maryland, while the colder Baltimore suburbs may see some wet flakes mix in at the end.
Positive Tilt Keeps the Storm Weaker
The jet stream is expected to dig deep into the eastern U.S. by Friday afternoon. A large pool of unseasonably cold air is shown from Minneapolis and Chicago to New York and Raleigh. The cold reaches as far south as Atlanta and Montgomery.
The key factor is the trough axis, which now has a positive tilt. That setup is progressive, meaning it pushes storms along quickly. It is not ideal for a nor’easter to grow stronger and hug the coast.
Storm Swings Farther East
Because of that setup, the low-pressure system is expected to move farther east and stay weaker. The European model shows the low near 987 millibars off the coast by 4 p.m. Friday. Rain is shown across Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Salisbury.
The storm could end with slushy flakes in some areas as colder air arrives. Snow is shown closer to the mountains near McHenry and State College. A weaker storm means less cold air pulled into the cities.
Mountain Snow Looks Likely
Snow odds from the ECMWF Ensemble and the AI ensemble are now in better agreement. Both show a 90 percent or higher chance of at least 1 inch of snow by Sunday in the mountains near McHenry and Garrett County. Higher terrain in western Maryland and West Virginia stands out…