Breaking down New England’s thunderstorm chances through the weekend

The overall setup will favor unsettled weather continuing through the weekend, but all-day washout potential is low and there will be plenty of dry times between scattered storms.

FRIDAY

Today starts off with ridging in place, bringing plenty of sun with efficient warming through the day. It’ll be another hot, humid day with mid 80s to mid 90s likely across New England. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will bring feels-like temperatures into the upper 90s for a good portion of southern and central New England.

In the afternoon and evening, a weakening system will push into New England, bringing scattered thunderstorms. These scattered storms will arrive in Connecticut and western Massachusetts by late afternoon and push northeast through the evening. The storms will weaken as they push north and east, eventually fizzling into some scattered light showers for the overnight hours.

HRRR showing potential weather this evening:

The severe storm threat is very low for New England. This moist atmosphere, along with weak shear and modest instability, is more favored for potentially heavy rainfall rates rather than damaging winds and large hail. The bulk of the severe activity is expected to remain just to New England’s south and west. With that said, a rogue severe storm in Connecticut or western Massachusetts can’t be completely ruled out.

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