Across the Deep South:
The same system that brought heavy rain and widespread flooding across Texas will continue moving eastward, bringing very heavy precipitation. Significant impacts are expected across the Deep South from Wednesday through Thursday with back-to-back systems through Sunday. This system poses a significant risk for flooding and travel issues across the region, particularly in areas further south, closer to the deeper moisture aloft. Concurrently, there will be convective activity with a line of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. This is especially likely if a line of severe storms forms, sweeping eastward across Mississippi and portions of Alabama capable of producing damaging winds perhaps an isolated tornado further south, before diminishing across the region. Further information and regional specifics of the forecast can be found below.
Overall Forecast:
In the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, a weakening trough is expected to continue moving northeastward towards the ArkLaTex, bringing very deep Gulf moisture across the entire Deep South, especially Mississippi and Alabama. Dew points are already rising and by Wednesday, they are expected to reach the mid to potentially upper 60s. This, combined with a low-level jet guiding this setup and allowing for a deepening southwest flow aloft, will create conditions conducive to very heavy rainfall. At the same time, convection is also expected, with a few thunderstorms potentially being severe, albeit on the lighter side, due to sufficient effective shear and possibly some low-level shear. This poses a risk of flooding and a few isolated damaging wind occurrences, should the storms intensify, particularly in central and southern Mississippi. There will also be a slight tornado risk due to that slightly enhanced low-level shear capable of possibly producing an isolated tornado mainly on Wednesday late afternoon/evening.