Brief Outlook:
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening across the Missouri Valley, particularly impacting parts of eastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, and northwestern Missouri. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
Region Impacted: Missouri Valley
Counties and Cities Impacted:
Kansas: Johnson County (Overland Park, Olathe), Douglas County (Lawrence)
Nebraska: Lancaster County (Lincoln), Sarpy County (Bellevue)
Iowa: Pottawattamie County (Council Bluffs), Mills County (Glenwood)
Missouri: Platte County (Kansas City), Buchanan County (St. Joseph)
Upper-Level Dynamics/Forecast:
An upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern and central Plains, leading to the development of a more organized thunderstorm complex over the Missouri Valley. Enhanced southerly low-level flow, combined with moderate mid-level westerlies (30-40 knots), will provide sufficient wind shear to support supercell formation in the afternoon and evening. These upper-level conditions are conducive to the development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.