Roughly 200 supporters flocked to a southwest Missouri veterans charity, the Warrior’s Journey, for the sake of Hawley’s re-election bid. A recent polling average calculated by ABC News / 538 over the past month shows Hawley leading his challenger, populist Democrat Lucas Kunce, by 10 percentage points. But some individual polls in recent times show a more narrow gap between the Republican and the Democrat. For context, back in 2018 Hawley bested then-incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill by 5.8 percentage points.