The weekend and early next week, our attention will shift to the mid-section of the US. Severe weather will be front and center along with elevated tornado risk and the risk for heavy rain and flash flooding. Over the weekend the concerns lie in Oklahoma and Texas as a stalled frontal boundary east of the Rockies creates an alley way for Gulf of Mexico moisture. Cold air in the Western US will set off thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Tornado risks will be elevated as well and we could see risks Monday for EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska, and Missouri.
While much of the Eastern US is in the middle of a very long stretch of dry weather and little rain, the middle of the US from Texas to the Great Lakes will be dealing with heavy rain. Rainfall amounts of 7 to 10 inches are possible over the next 7 days across parts of North Texas and Oklahoma to Western Missouri. Several inches of rain could fall as far north as Michigan and Eastern Wisconsin back to Illinois and Iowa. Flash flooding will likely become and issue early next week when the heaviest rain is forecast.