LAS VEGAS ( KLAS ) — Updated projections released on Thursday show Lake Mead rising another foot by the end of February and then crashing in April, eventually dropping 20 feet by November.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s February 24-month study shows Lake Mead hanging onto about 2 feet more water this year than projections showed just a month ago. And the outlook for 2025 is even more positive. The study is updated monthly to summarize expected river flows, and charts reflect the “most probable inflow” based on scientific models.
On Wednesday, Lake Mead’s surface reached 1,075 feet above sea level — a benchmark level used when the federal government formally declared a water shortage in August of 2021. The Lower Colorado River Basin states — Nevada, Arizona and California — remain in a Tier 1 water shortage and Lake Mead is expected to drop below 1,058 feet as August arrives this year.
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Improvements, and why they are happening
The February report has some significant improvements compared to January’s 24-month study. Snow conditions in the Upper Basin along with recent wet weather produced by atmospheric rivers that drenched Southern California have allowed Reclamation to continue to fill Lake Mead. All the rain in California reduced demand for water from the Colorado River in the state that uses more than any other. Among the changes in the past month: