All eyes are on the Empire State in the battle for the House, where there are at least five toss-up House races that could make or break a majority for either party. In the state, Republicans are fighting to hold onto seats they won in 2022, while Democrats are working to rebuild neglected party infrastructure.
In 2022, Republicans flipped four House seats in New York and held on in a close race in New York’s 22nd District. Although Democrats chipped away at those gains, retaking the Third District in a special election in early 2024, these five districts, alongside two other New York districts Democrats have identified as competitive, could be House majority-makers in 2024. By some estimations, the races in New York State delivered the House majority to the Republicans in a year that otherwise saw the GOP perform historically poorly for a midterm election.
This year, however, Democrats in New York seem to be feeling optimistic. They feel that the issues in 2024, particularly the focus on abortion, are more favorable to them than the crime-focused campaign in 2022. They also see Rep. Tom Suozzi’s victory in the special election in New York’s 3rd District as a template that they can work from in the general election.