NEW YORK (PIX11) – New York state’s population could drop by 13% over the next 25 years, a new study from Cornell University found.
Researchers anticipate the state’s population will decrease by at least 2 million people, reaching a population of around 18.3 million people by 2050.
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The projection is based on pre-COVID-19 population trends, but projections based on current population trends are much worse, showing a 16% population decline.
Researchers anticipate there won’t be enough migration into the state to outpace low fertility rates and aging. These trends are more extreme during COVID-19, explaining the bleaker projection.
Because of a decline in births, the population drop-off is most dramatic among ages 0-17, which could see up to a 25% drop-off by 2050.
From 2000 to 2010, the state’s population increased from 19 million to 19.4 million New Yorkers. By 2020, the population reached 20.1 million, according to the Cornell study.