Eastern North Carolina’s cold front has pushed well offshore this afternoon, bringing a surge of colder air and gusty northerly winds behind it. I have high confidence that a strong coastal low will develop into a nor’easter well off our coast through the rest of the weekend into early-to-mid next week, bringing strong winds, high waves, coastal flooding, and extremely dangerous marine conditions.
There’s still some uncertainty on exactly where the low will end up beyond early next week, and the latest guidance has nudged the track a bit farther offshore. That said, this doesn’t lessen the impacts already advertised for our coast. This remains a long-duration, long-fetch wind event, capable of piling up water along the shoreline and producing large waves well into the week.
High winds are still expected along the coast, though the Wind Advisory has been fine-tuned, western Carteret County has been dropped, while the Outer Banks and northern coastal zones remain included given their exposure to the stronger wind gradient. A few gusts to 60 mph can’t be ruled out early this evening as the initial surge of cold air arrives, though the farther-offshore track should help keep winds somewhat lower than earlier forecasts through the rest of the week…