Brief Outlook:
For Sunday, November 17, 2024, parts of the Southern High Plains, particularly western, central, and northwest Texas, are anticipated to experience strong to severe thunderstorms. This is expected to develop from Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday, with risks including severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes.
Upper Levels:
A mid-level trough will move into the area from northern Mexico, affecting the Southern High Plains by Sunday night. This movement is part of a larger upper-level low that will enhance large-scale atmospheric lifting over the region, creating favorable conditions for severe weather development.
Surface Forecast:
Strong moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the trough, with surface dewpoints rising into the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit across the region. This increase in moisture, coupled with the dynamic lift from the upper levels, will support the development of a large area of convection by early Sunday evening. The convection is expected to initiate from southeast New Mexico into far west and west-central Texas as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens over the Southern High Plains. The expected MLCAPE (Mixed Layer Convective Available Potential Energy) values will range from 500 to 1000 J/kg, indicating sufficient energy for severe thunderstorm development.