The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted the Wisconsin Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up,” handing Republican Eric Hovde a boost as he tries to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).
Baldwin, the two-term incumbent, has led throughout the campaign but has hit choppy waters as the race hits the final month. A recent poll by the Cook Political Report showed Baldwin leading by 2 points (49 to 47 percent), with similar internal polls on both sides of the aisle helping them cement the ratings change.
A polling average from The Hill and DDHQ , meanwhile, has Baldwin leading by 4.3 percent.
“This tightening, as Hovde has further consolidated Republicans behind him and brought independents over to his side, is largely predictable,” Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote, pointing to Wisconsin’s status as a preeminent swing state.
President Biden won the state in 2020 by 20,000 votes and less than a percentage point. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) won reelection in 2022 by a single percentage point.