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Wisconsin is one of the most critical swing states this election, given its 10 electoral college votes and strong likelihood for a repeat, nail-bitingly close result. Four of the past six presidential elections have been decided by less than a percentage point.
From the end of World War II through 1984, the state voted Republican more often than not. Democrats won all seven elections between 1988 and 2012, just squeaking out wins in 2000 and 2004.
That streak was broken in 2016. Not a single poll conducted in the Badger State that year showed Trump with a lead, but he won the state by 0.7 percent over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just 20,682 votes, a 0.63 percent margin, tying for the second narrowest decision in the country with Arizona and just behind Georgia.
Wisconsin is the whitest of the swing states and the most blue-collar. Rural areas have grown redder over recent cycles, but that shift has been matched by growing urban areas and suburbs moving left.