As the Bay Area bakes under summer’s heat, small changes in the Pacific Ocean signal a shift in the weather — and it could mean a better chance for a drier, warmer winter in The City after some recent years of above-average precipitation .
Climate models now predict a two-in-three chance of a La Niña pattern forming later this year, with the probability increasing for La Niña to persist into the winter months.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s latest discussion , such conditions are “favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January).”
Historically, the La Niña pattern has more often brought below-average rainfall to Northern California. And while it might be nice to have fewer days carrying umbrellas or wearing galoshes, the state still teeters on the edge of drought , highlighting how fickle the Golden State’s climate can be.
While La Niña tilts the odds toward drier conditions, it doesn’t guarantee them.