Tampa’s homicide count climbed from eight to 11 in the first half of 2026, placing the city among a small handful of major U.S. metros moving in the opposite direction of a broader national decline in violent crime. The increase, drawn from Major Cities Chiefs Association survey data, comes as Tampa also navigates a leadership shake-up atop its police department.
The Tampa figure was first reported by Axios, which analyzed Major Cities Chiefs Association data showing homicides across 66 large U.S. communities fell 17.2% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period the year before. Tampa’s trend ran counter to that pattern, with the city’s homicide count landing among the highest year-over-year increases for major cities nationally during the first half of 2026, according to preliminary data reviewed by Axios. The outlet noted that the Tampa Police Department did not respond to a request for comment on the survey.
Other Florida cities told a mixed story in the same dataset. Orlando’s homicide count rose from six in the first half of 2025 to 10 in the first half of 2026, a 66.7% increase, while Miami’s homicide count fell 50% over the same comparison period, per the Axios analysis. Nationally, homicides declined 17.2% from the first half of 2025, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association survey covering 66 responding agencies — consistent with a first-quarter 2026 decline of 17.7% across 67 agencies reported by the same association.
A Historic Low Baseline Shapes the Numbers
Local context matters here: Tampa’s 2026 midyear increase is being measured against an unusually low starting point. In full-year 2025, Tampa recorded just 19 homicides — a 52.8% decrease from 2024 and the city’s lowest annual homicide total in more than 50 years, according to WTSP. That means a jump from eight to 11 homicides at midyear, while a real increase, still sits well below the city’s historical norms…