Jeff Berardelli is WFLA’s Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — It has been over 100 years since the Tampa Bay Area has seen a direct hit from a major hurricane – Category 3 or higher. But if the models are right, our area may see an astonishing increase in the future.
WFLA partnered with Columbia University to do a study last summer to determine if Tampa Bay’s major hurricane drought has just been a string of good luck— or if the lack of direct hits is just the norm for our area.
Our results showed it’s not luck. Turns out our favorable geography combined with a mild climate like the 20th century meant, statistically speaking, the immediate Tampa Bay Area should only see a major hurricane less than once per century.
NHC continues to monitor 4 disturbances in the Atlantic and Gulf
While major hurricanes were indeed rare in the cooler climate of the 1900s, what about the warmer climate we are experiencing now— and the even warmer climate we will feel in future decades?