ARIZONA – Phoenix, Flagstaff, Tucson and Prescott face sharply different winter conditions as the 2026-27 season approaches. Arizona’s historical annual snowfall averages approximately 20.56 inches across weather stations statewide, but that figure masks major elevation differences. El Niño does not eliminate mountain snowstorms, dangerous cold or winter travel disruptions, which can continue through March.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), its October 15, 2026, outlook for December through February places Arizona largely within an equal-chances temperature category, meaning no temperature outcome is favored. The precipitation outlook favors above-normal totals across much of the state, particularly southern Arizona. These seasonal probabilities do not predict snowfall amounts or individual storms.
What Arizona’s Snowfall History Actually Shows Arizona’s 20.56-inch historical snowfall average reflects measurements across weather stations statewide, not conditions in Phoenix, Tucson or Flagstaff individually…