According to the Arizona Weatherman, Thursday through Saturday, 17-19 Apr 2025, expect a longwave trough coupled with an upper-level low to impact the state. The main difference from my previous forecast for this weekend was that the second upper-level low will stay further north. This will keep the majority of precipitation on the Mogollon Rim and very little to none hitting southern Arizona.
On Thursday, expect no precipitation throughout the day except in the evening hours coming into the state from the north. However, a strong jet stream will be over the central part of the state, and strong gusty surface winds will impact Arizona, coupled with very low relative humidity in the 5% to 15% range. Leading to wildfire potential. Expect the max gust winds for the Mogollon Rim to be 40-55 mph, and southern Arizona over Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Cochise, and Santa Cruz to be 35-50 mph.…