The Tucson labor force keeps growing, but the job market shows signs of strain, , according to an analysis from the Eller Business Research Center.
Exhibit 1 presents current Tucson MSA economic indicators.
In June, the non-seasonally adjusted civilian labor force in the Tucson MSA (Pima County) grew by 1.8% over the year, reaching 497,900. This marks the continuation of a steady upward trend, with year-over-year increases recorded each month so far in 2025. In April, the labor force rose 1.0% to 494,800, followed by a 1.3% increase in May to 498,300.
In the Tucson MSA, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by 0.6 percentage points over the year to 4.6% in June. Each month in 2025 so far has recorded a year-over-year increase in the unemployment rate. March saw the greatest jump, rising 1.1 percentage points to 4.1%, followed by a 0.6-point increase in April to 3.5%, and a 0.9-point rise in May to 4.2%. At the state level, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 3.5% in April to 4.1% in May and 4.5% in June.
Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in the Tucson MSA declined slightly in the most recent two months of data. Employment fell 0.5% in May to 398,200, followed by a 0.1% decrease in June to 398,000. In contrast, the January-April period saw consistent month-over-month gains, with employment rising from 396,800 to a peak of 400,100 in April…