A budget deficit is looming over Washington State. The size of that deficit is unknown, but depending on who you ask, and when you ask, the low end is just over $4 billion with the max hitting around $15 billion. Before Jay Inslee left the Governor’s Mansion, he pegged the deficit between $10 and $12 billion.
The deficit may not have huge impact this year if the legislature engineers some spending cuts and state agencies follow Governor Ferguson’s cost cutting recommendations. Those figures don’t include potential federal dollars Washington State could lose over their separate standoffs with the Trump Administration.
Everything is Fluid When It Comes To Money
While in Olympia last Friday, I had the chance to ask Rep. Jim Walsh (R-19th District Aberdeen) about where the numbers really fall. He told me he believed the actual deficit number is closer to $6 billion with it not having an immediate impact.
I also asked the Capital Budget Committee member about the amount of federal dollars at risk over the state stances that conflict with President Donald Trump’s recent executive orders on immigration, DEI programs, and Title IX. He estimated that loss could be in the billions off the top of his head. That’s a lot of money to gamble with when you’re already facing a shortfall.
The amount of money the state receives from the federal government also varies. Washington saw significant more federal money during the COVID pandemic than before it hit.
Funding sources that could be jeopardized in the standoff would impact public safety and education. Some data from the Department of Justice reveals $8 million going to law enforcement agencies in the western part of the state and another nearly $2.5 million to departments on the east side. Those are direct funding grants for which individual departments apply. In a statement, Gov. Ferguson said Washington receives around $58 million total from the Department of Justice.
Education dollars are a much different situation. According to educationdata.org, our state gets almost $2,500 per pupil, or just under $2.7 billion, per year in federal funding for K-12. Post secondary money coming in to the state equals around $5,000 per student.
The data in the chart above show around 180,000 posts secondary students enrolled in Washington State for the school year ending in 2023. Based on that number, federal dollars add up to just over $900 million annually. These aren’t all of the areas that could be impacted by the federal government withholding funds, but they are a couple of significant ones…