West Palm Beach, FLA. (WPEC) — Tropical Storm Jerry continues to look like a storm that just can’t catch a break. Despite being upgraded slightly in strength, Jerry remains disorganized, with its structure stretched and battered by northwesterly wind shear, a disruptive force that’s pushing its thunderstorms away from the center and making it hard for the storm to strengthen.
Satellite and aircraft data show Jerry’s low-level circulation is especially messy on the northwest side, where a surface trough (an elongated area of low pressure) is extending away from the storm. That’s a sign the storm’s center isn’t well-defined, and in tropical meteorology, that’s a red flag for weakening.
Still, Jerry’s winds have ticked up slightly to 50 knots (about 58 mph), based on recent data. But those tropical-storm-force winds are mostly confined to the eastern half of the storm, meaning areas to the west are seeing much lighter conditions.
Rain, not wind, is the bigger concern
Even though Jerry’s center is passing north of the Leeward Islands, heavy rain continues to fall across parts of the Virgin Islands and nearby areas. Earlier rainbands that had been dumping persistent downpours over the northeastern Caribbean have weakened, but flash flooding remains a concern—especially in areas with saturated soils or poor drainage.
What’s next for Jerry?
Jerry is currently moving northward at about 13 knots (15 mph), and that motion should continue through Saturday night. By Sunday night, it’s expected to turn eastward as it gets caught in the mid-latitude westerlies—the west-to-east winds that dominate the upper atmosphere in the middle latitudes…