LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Louisville (8-4, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Toledo (8-4, 6-2 MAC) in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 23 at 2:00 p.m. EST at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla. Here’s how the Cardinals stack up against the Rockets:
*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*
Rankings
| Toledo | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| AP/USAT | NR/NR | RV/RV |
| CFP | NR | NR |
| SOS | 128th | 53rd |
| SOR | 76th | 36th |
| SP+ | 38th | 29th |
| FPI | 52nd | 29th |
| Sagarin | 54th | 27th |
| Kelley Ford | 56th | 31st |
| CFB Graphs | 50th | 38th |
Offensive Statistics
| Toledo | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Offense | 31st (421.8) | 69th (388.8) |
| Yards Per Play | 28th (6.30) | 38th (5.99) |
| Scoring Offense | 38th (31.6) | 45th (30.2) |
| Passing Yards | 51st (244.0) | 65th (226.3) |
| Yards Per Completion | 46th (12.25) | 101st (10.77) |
| Rushing Yards | 44th (177.8) | 65th (162.6) |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 29th (4.94) | 23rd (5.07) |
| First Downs Gained | 52nd (255) | 86th (235) |
| 3rd Down Con. % | 55th (41.0) | 94th (36.9) |
| 4th Down Con. % | 133rd (18.8) | 69th (54.4) |
| Red Zone Con. % | 119th (75.5) | 13th (92.1) |
| Turnovers Lost | 49th (14) | 75th (16) |
| Interceptions Thrown | 71st (10) | 60th (9) |
| Fumbles Lost | 16th (4) | 77th (7) |
| Tackles For Loss Allowed | 37th (4.75) | 68th (5.33) |
| Sacks Allowed | 13th (1.08) | 75th (1.92) |
| Avg. Time of Possession | 62nd (30:08) | 54th (30:22) |
Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)
Defensive Statistics
| Toledo | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Defense | 3rd (247.8) | 16th (300.3) |
| Yards Allowed Per Play | 1st (3.91) | 15th (4.69) |
| Scoring Defense | 4th (12.2) | 35th (21.1) |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 8th (158.4) | 27th (190.6) |
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 8th (89.3) | 22nd (109.8) |
| First Downs Allowed | 3rd (168) | 15th (200) |
| 3rd Down Def. % | 5th (29.9) | 20th (33.3) |
| 4th Down Def. % | 11th (37.0) | 14th (37.5) |
| Red Zone Def. % | 3rd (68.0) | 67th (83.9) |
| Turnovers Gained | 25th (20) | 36th (19) |
| Interceptions Caught | 23rd (13) | 16th (14) |
| Fumbles Recovered | 44th (7) | 79th (5) |
| TFL Per Game | 5th (7.4) | 60th (5.6) |
| Sacks Per Game | 13th (2.92) | 50th (2.25) |
Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)
Special Teams Statistics
| Toledo | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Net Punting | 108th (37.37) | 113th (37.09) |
| Avg. Kickoff Return | 42nd (22.29) | 33rd (22.69) |
| Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 103rd (22.78) | 33rd (18.12) |
| Avg. Punt Return | 32nd (11.48) | 5th (18.08) |
| Avg. Punt Return Def. | 20th (4.22) | 18th (4.11) |
| Field Goal Attempts | 8-11 | 23-28 |
| PAT | 49-49 | 37-39 |
Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)
Predictions:
– FPI Prediction: Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 67.6 percent chance to win against the Rockets. Louisville has an FPI rating of 9.9 (29th overall), whereas Toledo has an FPI rating of 4.2 (52nd overall)
– SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly’s SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 58.0 percent chance to take down the Rockets. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 11.7 (29th overall), whereas Toledo has an SP+ rating of 8.4 (38th overall)…