The drought has continued to deepen in parts of our viewing area.
Over the next week, several systems will move through, triggering showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may become severe at times as the moisture content of the atmosphere and instability grow.
A front that has been sitting over the state the last 24 hours has shifted to the north as a warm front. This will keep us milder overnight in the 40s and 50s.
Quite a few clouds gathered over northern Kansas today. Much of this will break apart although we will still be left with partly cloudy skies. A cold front plans to dip southward on Wednesday.
The moisture is meager but there is enough lift in an increasingly unstable atmosphere for the front to grasp anything that it can to produce a few thunderstorms by Wednesday evening.
This activity will be spotty from Northcentral back to Southwest Kansas. A Marginal Risk is circled for a storm or two to produce severe criteria hail to quarter size. Damaging wind gust to 60 MPH is also on the table.
What develops will track to the southeast and die as it gets closer to Wichita.
Then a few hours before dawn on Thursday, the low-level jet brings in a surge of moisture to produce scattered showers and storms over portions of central Kansas. This will have a higher focus over our north central counties and track east into Thursday morning toward Kansas City. Wichita may get in on this if it can build far enough to the south.
Attention then turns to Thursday. More of northern into southwest Kansas is enclosed in a Marginal Risk.
The lift looks strong and the instability a little higher, plus the moisture content of the atmosphere is also greater to help kick off another round of scattered showers and storms by evening. A few may be severe for hail and damaging winds.
The front will keep pushing farther south into Friday but not completely clear our area. This will lead to more chances for showers and storms into the weekend and early next week.
Saturday’s severe risk is still to the southwest over the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Sunday’s severe chance shifts farther east and now includes Wichita.
Then next Monday, a wider swath of Kansas is outlined for strong to severe storms to the east. Details for each day will become clearer as we get closer.
Unsettled skies remain through early next week before getting a break by next Wednesday. Highs are expected to stay in the 60s and 70s. A select few over southern Kansas may get as warm as the 80s, but an extended heat wave is not expected. It does look cooler next Tuesday with temps briefly dipping below average before turning back closer to the norm.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:Wichita:Tonight: Mostly clear to partly cloudy, breezy. Lo: 48 Wind: S 10-20Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers. Hi: 74 Wind: S 15-25Tomorrow Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 52 Wind: S 8-18
Wichita WeeklyThu: Hi: 78 Lo: 56 Mostly cloudy, windy. 30% chance of showers and storms.Fri: Hi: 72 Lo: 57 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 60% chance of showers and storms.Sat: Hi: 74 Lo: 61 Mostly cloudy, windy. 50% chance of showers and storms.Sun: Hi: 75 Lo: 59 Mostly cloudy, windy. 60% chance of showers and storms.Mon: Hi: 80 Lo: 54 Mostly cloudy, windy. 30% chance of showers and storms.Tue: Hi: 66 Lo: 38 Mostly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers…