After an extended break from active weather, New England is looking at a potential nor’easter brewing for early next week. The energy source for this system is currently working through the Gulf of Alaska. As expected at this stage, there are multiple scenarios on the table for our region.
Models can struggle to hone in on what a system will do while it remains over the Pacific Ocean, which is why forecasters don’t like to try to go into details about a storm system until it enters the upper air pattern over land. When this happens, it starts to become more clear on exactly where a storm will go.
Exactly where a storm goes is always crucial in determining what kind of precipitation type falls across New England. There remains a large spread in potential tracks, with the CMC and ICON currently bringing the system inside the 40/70 benchmark. This would lead to a mainly rain or mixing event in southern New England with more snow into northern New England (and possibly the higher elevations of southern New England). The further north the storm tracks, the further north rain/mixing will get.