Winter is coming and on Thursday, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its seasonal forecast for the months of December, January and February, predicting a slightly milder winter in southern New England.
You can almost smell it in the air. We are starting to check some “winter is just around the corner” boxes:
- We had our first nor’easter a few days ago
- We had our first widespread frost and freeze
- The leaves are turning and dropping (quicker than usual this year)
- And finally, social media is starting to light up with various winter forecasts
The main forecast factor in their outlook was the emergence of a weak La Nina, which they expect to persist through the winter.
And, sure enough, their precipitation and temperature forecasts very much resemble that of a typical La Nina winter.
What does winter look like this year?
What does this mean for New England? Essentially NOAA says that we have equal chances of above and below average precipitation … no big news there.
The biggest takeaway was their temperature forecast which showed slightly higher probabilities for a warmer than average winter in southern New England.
How does NOAA determine forecast?
NOAA uses a probability-based forecast that can be somewhat confusing. Essentially, they are taking the most recent 30-year dataset and breaking it into three categories…