While Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut did not get the white Christmas some were hoping for, some in southern New England may see a white after-Christmas.
According to the National Weather Service, they are keeping a close eye on a low-pressure system that could bring plowable snow to the region Friday night into Saturday Morning. Uncertainty remains high, as guidance shows significant spread in the systems’ track. The best chances for 3+ inches of snow are in southwest Connecticut.
A positively tilted shortwave and associated surface low drops out of the Great Lakes on Friday and moves towards the Northeast for Friday night into Saturday. 00z guidance didn`t make the track of this system any clearer as global guidance sources of the GFS and Canadian keep the southerly track through PA and into southern NY, while the NAM swung for the fences and takes this system through central NY and into southern New England. The EURO also shifted the track slightly to the north, but not to the extent of the NAM. Given the large spread in the low-pressure track, confidence in snow accumulation remains low. The best chance for plowable snow accumulation remains in SW CT, where Ensembles show a 50% probability of 3 inches of snow, dropping to 10-20% in eastern MA. Hi-res guidance only adds to the uncertainty at this time, as it still favors a more southern track (outside the Nam-3k), with dry air shutting out most of southern New England…