Extreme heat will make it difficult for storms to develop on Sunday, but models are showing potential for a bow echo diving southeast from northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Will it actually happen?
Let’s begin with the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The latest update (8 a.m.) has a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk in a sliver of east-central Minnesota and for most of Wisconsin. The Twin Cities is in a level 2 of 5 slight risk.
“Initial intense supercell development is expected in this zone, posing a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe wind gusts, and potentially at least some tornado risk,” the SPC says. “Upscale growth into one or more intense wind-producing southeastward-moving clusters are expected into this evening amidst the enhanced northwesterly flow aloft.”
Overall, the track of the storms appears to favor locations north and east of the Twin Cities. Why? Because there’s a very strong cap over most of Minnesota, and the cap it a bit weaker near the Arrowhead and northern Wisconsin.
Let’s take a look at a few model runs, which, after yesterday’s debacle in which they struggled with a damaging wind event in South Dakota, need to be taken with a grain of salt…