After decades of steady population growth, the Bay Area’s seemingly endless upward growth in residents ground to a halt over the past 10 years. A full-blown exodus from the state may be a fallacy, but people are relocating in search of a lower cost of living, whether they need to financially or not. Deciding to exit is much more likely to result in homeownership, a new report shows, but that achievement can come with significant trade-offs.
Building off its previous California-wide analysis, the California Policy Lab has now zoomed in on the Bay Area, revealing new findings about who is really leaving the state and why. Using credit card data that tracked residents for years after they relocated, the nonpartisan research institute found that Bay Area residents are 15% more likely to own a home just one year after their move. After five years, that number jumps to 33%.
Those who leave California for another state are seeing significantly lower housing costs. The median home value for those who left between 2015 and 2019 was about 57% lower (about $687,000) in their new location than their previous neighborhood. For people who left San Francisco, the number is staggering. Median home values were about $916,000 less, and rents were 38% (or $987) less…