Zillow’s latest housing forecast is flashing a warning light for Austin, slotting the metro among the country’s biggest expected price decliners as roughly a third of U.S. markets are projected to slip over the coming year. The caution comes at a time when for-sale inventory is piling up, and buyers are thin on the ground across large swaths of the Sun Belt and Gulf Coast.
Zillow’s Outlook: Flat National Prices, Big Local Differences
On paper, Zillow’s updated model sounds calm enough. It calls for national home values to be basically flat through March 2027. Under the hood, though, some local markets look a lot shakier than others.
Among the metros facing the steepest forecast price drops are Houma, Louisiana, at an expected decline of 7.0%, Lake Charles, Louisiana, at 5.6%, Austin at 4.6%, and New Orleans at 4.4%, according to analysis highlighted by ResiClub.
Austin Among the Biggest Losers
For Austin, the numbers translate into a meaningful trim. The typical home value in the metro sits at about $508,530. A 4.6% decline would shave roughly $23,400 off that price tag.
The Austin projection appears in Zillow’s metro-level breakdown that has been reproduced by industry roundups, and the corresponding local Zillow Home Value Index estimate is listed on Zillow’s Austin market page. ACPT Wire has published the same figures for the area.
What’s Driving the Split
The divide between the markets that are softening and those that are holding up is being driven largely by old-fashioned supply and demand. Redfin reports there were an estimated 46.3% more sellers than buyers in February 2026, or roughly 630,000 more sellers nationwide, a gap that gives shoppers more leverage in many metros…