At the time of this writing, the AQI in Erie was just under 200, still in the unhealthy range. The smoke model (Graphic #2) shows the thick smoke moving away to the east during the day.
As far as severe storm potential goes for later today…-We are still under a level 3 out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) for today. This doesn’t happen often. We’re usually in a 1 or 2, so this is worth paying attention to.-The likely outcomes have to do with the timing of storms, which are late afternoon to evening, approximately 4 PM- 9 PM.-The uncertain outcomes are the placement and intensity of the storms.
We’ve included 2 model outcomes and therefore 2 possible solutions
-Graphic #3 is one model that shows a line of storms coming onshore as well as potentially severe storms developing in Crawford and Warren Counties out ahead of the main line around 5PM.
-Graphic #4 shows a weaker line coming onshore around 5 and the stronger storms much further south, down toward I-80.
So the outcome is far from certain at the time of this writing early in the morning. We will prepare for showers and storms to move through the region at the above-mentioned time window, but we’ll have to get better data to see better agreement as to how powerful these storms turn out to be. Damaging winds would be the main threat later today (trees down, power outages, and some structural damage if this pans out). But downpours and lightning can accompany any storm, severe or not. Hail is possible, and there could be some rotation, although these threats are much lower risks…