TROPICAL STORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN GULF; TORNADO RISK POSSIBLE LOCALLY THURSDAY… Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely at times in the days ahead as a tropical system approaches south Alabama and northwest Florida from the southwest. The probabilities of development for this system have increased. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 40-50% chance the disturbance becomes a named tropical storm before landfall on Wednesday in parts of Texas or Louisiana. Regardless of the status of the storm (whether it is named or not), the impacts for the local area remain the same: Waves of heavy rain, flash flooding increasingly likely where storms train over the same areas, and perhaps a tornado risk on Wednesday night into Thursday.
TORNADO RISK POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes may become possible late Wednesday into much of the day on Thursday as this area of low pressure passes by the region. It is a bit too early for timing specifics but please be aware that we may have a tornado risk setting up for Thursday across all of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Spotty storms will continue to be possible into the weekend, but the severe weather/tornado risk should end by Thursday evening. This is something I will be monitoring carefully over the next few days.
NAME OR NO NAME – IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME… It really won’t matter much if the tropical system in question, currently situated over northern Mexico, becomes a named tropical storm. The impacts from the system across Alabama and northwest Florida remain the same. The biggest, most widespread impact will very likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Rain amounts of 3 to 7” in total through Friday are expected across the local area with the higher rain amounts expected further inland near the US84 corridor…