One state is looking at more snow this winter, not less, and it is the one that just saw snow in July. Alaska’s forecasters are calling for above normal snowfall along the coast as a Super El Nino builds, and the roads that carry the state through winter sit right under it.What the Outlook Says
What the Outlook Says
The National Weather Service office in Anchorage has built its 2026-27 outlook around El Nino: above normal temperatures across southern Alaska and the Aleutians, above normal precipitation and snowfall along the coast, near normal elsewhere. The broader seasonal outlook for January through March runs warm across the state, and the event itself, which researchers at the Columbia Climate School say is already showing the classic early warning signs of a Super El Nino, has an 81 percent chance of reaching very strong intensity between October and December.
NOAA’s snow map of El Nino winters draws the driver’s line: the coastal mountains of Southcentral and Southeast run blue, more snow than average, while most of the Interior runs brown. The snow concentrates where the traffic does.
One caveat and done: the last strong El Nino winter, 2023-24, ran colder than expected and still buried parts of southern Alaska. The pattern shifts the odds, it does not sign a contract.
Where the Snow Piles Up
|
Road / Pass |
What the Outlook Points To |
Why It Matters |
|
Thompson Pass, Richardson Highway |
Deepest blue zone on the El Nino snow map, above normal coastal snowfall in the Anchorage outlook |
Snowiest recorded place in Alaska and the only road into Valdez; steep grades, avalanche terrain, chain territory |
|
Turnagain Pass, Seward Highway |
Coastal mountain corridor in the above normal snow zone |
Main route out of Anchorage to the Kenai; heaviest traffic of any mountain pass in the state |
|
Glenn Highway to Eureka Summit |
Above normal snow on the climbs, freeze-thaw at lower elevations |
Anchorage’s link to Glennallen and the Interior; long exposed grades that hold ice |
|
Hatcher Pass Road |
High terrain in the blue zone |
Recreation traffic all winter; closes to through traffic but the access sides stay busy |
|
Parks Highway and the Dalton |
Brown on the map, less snow than average but full Interior cold |
Less fresh snow does not soften minus 40; the cold side of the split, not the safe side |
The pattern is simple: the snow surplus lands on the passes within reach of Anchorage, which is exactly where Alaska’s winter traffic already is.
How Drivers Should Play It
The preparation is the same one the calendar already demands in Alaska, just aimed at a different mix. An El Nino winter trades some of the deep cold for surfaces that keep changing, and that is a harder problem than plain snow…